2023-618
Banker: VOYAGE SAMURAI (3.6x / 2nd)
Top supporting runners: UNIVERSAL HORIZON (18.0x / 7th), KARMA (11.0x / 1st)
Secondary supporting runners: FRANTANCK (4.9x / 6th), HELENE WARRIOR (14.0x / 4th)
Betting strategy:
VOYAGE SAMURAI with UNIVERSAL HORIZON, KARMA: Quinella & Quinella Place @$20
VOYAGE SAMURAI with FRANTANCK, HELENE WARRIOR: Quinella @$10
UNIVERSAL HORIZON, KARMA: Quinella Place @$10
Total stake: $120
Dividends: $392
In earlier analyses of several Class 3 1400m races, we successfully used them to determine the Tier of progressive horses moving up from Class 4 into Class 3.
(Reference races 2022-530 / 2024-632.)
But what if, like VOYAGE SAMURAI in this race, the horse has finished in the top three in every start this season and has shown virtually no weaknesses?
In this kind of situation I would still prefer to treat it as the Banker.
My interpretation is that most of the other Class 3 horses in the same field have already shown their full ability. From their point of view, if they are not confident about beating a new horse whose upside is still unclear, they may not all have the incentive to go all out, which in effect reduces the level of opposition that this new horse is facing.
Whether things actually work out like this in practice, however, still requires further analysis.
KARMA has previously finished close to UNIVERSAL HORIZON, and has also been beaten just over a length by FOOLISH HEART.
Although it was narrowly beaten by STAR MAC, it can still be included as a supporting runner.
The main issue with STUNNING PEACH is that a Class 3 1600m race is not favourable for a first‑time import, so I have lowered its Tier.