2024-628
Banker: MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE (2.5x / 1st)
First selection support: GENEVA (4.3x / 6th), CALL ME GLORIOUS (26.0x / 2nd)
Second selection support: SUPER LEGENDS (9.4x / 3rd), AKASHVANI (3.3x / 4th)
Betting strategy:
MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE with GENEVA, CALL ME GLORIOUS: Quinella & Quinella Place @$20
MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE with SUPER LEGENDS, AKASHVANI: Quinella @$10
GENEVA, CALL ME GLORIOUS: Quinella & Quinella Place @$10
Total stake: $120
Dividends: $1,008
My strike rate in Class 3 1200m races is lower than over 1400m/1600m.
Without changing the algorithm, I will use this race to set the benchmark Tier, and then calculate the Tiers for other Class 3 1200m races.
Standard 1:
If more than one horse shares the advantage Tier on the Strong side,
I will use the forecast price of their corresponding Weak side to decide which one is the Strong horse.
In this race, the algorithm produced two Strong–Weak pairings:
Strong 1 MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE – Weak 1 AKASHVANI
Strong 2 GENEVA – Weak 2 RIGHTEOUS ARION
Comparing AKASHVANI and RIGHTEOUS ARION, it is clear that AKASHVANI, having finished in the first two in all its starts so far, is more likely to be a hot favourite.
This can be interpreted as MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE having a stronger intent to strike, because it is more likely to defeat a solid rival in the same field.
That in turn helps us to identify CALL ME GLORIOUS, which is close to MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE in profile.
Of course, MASTEROFMYUNIVERSE also benefits from being booked by Purton and a good draw,
but for now I prefer not to rely on these factors to determine the Banker,
because sometimes that would make us miss a stronger horse at a better price.
Standard 2:
Only one Weak horse is selected.
A Weak horse is one that has finished in the top four over the same distance recently,
but appears as the Weak side against more than one horse in the advantage Tier.
Here I take RIGHTEOUS ARION as the Weak horse because its Tier is lower than both GALLANT VALOUR and GENEVA.
Applying the horse‑selection method,
SUPER LEGENDS had previously beaten RIGHTEOUS ARION by three lengths in an earlier race,
so it can be included as a supporting selection.