2024-632
BET SLIPS:
Banker: EVERYONE’S FORTUNE (5.1x / 1st)
Primary Selections: BEAUTY GLORY (9.6x / 2nd) SILVERY BREEZE (5.5x / 4th)
Secondary Selections: HAROLD WIN (3.7x / 3rd) CHARMING LEGEND (11.0x / 9th)
Betting Strategy:
Banker EVERYONE’S FORTUNE with BEAUTY GLORY and SILVERY BREEZE: Quinella & Place Quinella @$20
Banker EVERYONE’S FORTUNE with HAROLD WIN and CHARMING LEGEND: Quinella @$10
BEAUTY GLORY with SILVERY BREEZE: Quinella & Place Quinella @$10
Total stake: $120
WHY:
ENDEARED (10.0x / 11th) and EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS (14.0x / 5th) are both older horses that have already been in training for more than three seasons. They made the frame at big odds last time out, so their intent to fully attack this race may not be that strong, and their Tier is therefore adjusted down. As a result, the choice of Banker falls on EVERYONE’S FORTUNE, who has finished close to ENDEARED before, together with BEAUTY GLORY or CHARMING LEGEND. Among these, CHARMING LEGEND once finished behind STELLAR SWIFT (12.0x / 7th), so offers the poorest value.
ENDEARED and HAROLD WIN have each taken on two Class 4 horses before. The Advantage analysis shows ENDEARED to be slightly stronger, and ultimately HAROLD WIN, despite being a hot favourite, could only finish 3rd. Consequently, ANOTHER ZONDA (25.0x / 10th), who narrowly defeated HAROLD WIN last time, can also have its Tier marked down. This once again confirms that Advantage Scores calculated from Class 4 races apply equally well to Class 3 races.
EVERYONE’S FORTUNE missed the start badly two runs ago, so that finishing position is not used in the Advantage Score calculation. Going forward, when evaluating form over any distance, race performances that were clearly affected by in‑running incidents, or where a horse was forced to race three wide without cover around the bend, will continue to be filtered out in advance in order to avoid distortion.