2024-747
Bet Slips:
Key horse: BRILLIANT EXPRESS (2.4x / 2nd)
Primary supporting runners: RISING FROM ASHES (19.0x / 9th), THE ABSOLUTE (12.0x / 4th)
Secondary supporting runners: TOP GUN (30.0x / 7th), SUPERB KID (11.0x / 1st)
Betting strategy:
BRILLIANT EXPRESS with RISING FROM ASHES, THE ABSOLUTE: quinella & quinella place @$20
BRILLIANT EXPRESS with TOP GUN, SUPERB KID: quinella @$10
RISING FROM ASHES, THE ABSOLUTE: quinella & quinella place @$10
Total stake: $100
Why:
Although BRILLIANT EXPRESS was once beaten by today’s Mid Tier runner THE ABSOLUTE,
it also once bolted up by six lengths over RISING FROM ASHES, where the latter produced a faultless run that day,
so using BRILLIANT EXPRESS as the key horse is still reasonable.
When selecting the key horse, the focus should be on its margin to the Strong Tier runners.
As for RISING FROM ASHES missing the frame this time,
note that it is an older horse that has already been racing for four seasons.
Last start it hit the board at big odds,
so it may now need a breather and the connections’ intent could be reduced.
If similar patterns are spotted again in other case studies, they will be added as an adjustment factor in the strategy.
SUPER UNICORN (18.0x / 5th) is negatively hadicapped after a stable change,
and that is exactly what created the opportunity to latch on to another Mid Tier runner, SUPERB KID.